TY - JOUR
T1 - An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa
AU - Onyango, Esther Achieng
AU - Sahin, Oz
AU - Awiti, Alex
AU - Chu, Cordia
AU - Mackey, Brendan
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported in part by the Griffith Graduate School through the award of the Griffith University International Postgraduate Research Scholarship and the Griffith University Postgraduate Research Scholarship and through supplementary awards from the Griffith Climate Change Response Program and the Aga Khan University East African Institute.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 The Author(s).
PY - 2016/11/11
Y1 - 2016/11/11
N2 - Background: Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Results: Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. Conclusions: A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.
AB - Background: Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Results: Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. Conclusions: A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.
KW - Climate change and malaria risk
KW - Climate change impact on malaria transmission
KW - East Africa
KW - Integrated risk and vulnerability assessment
KW - Systems approach
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84999752747&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12936-016-1600-3
DO - 10.1186/s12936-016-1600-3
M3 - Article
C2 - 27835976
AN - SCOPUS:84999752747
SN - 1475-2875
VL - 15
SP - 1
EP - 12
JO - Malaria Journal
JF - Malaria Journal
IS - 1
M1 - 551
ER -