APASL-ACLF Research Consortium–Artificial Intelligence (AARC-AI) model precisely predicts outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) for APASL ACLF Working Party

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


Background and Aims: We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) models are more precise than standard models for predicting outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods: We recruited ACLF patients between 2009 and 2020 from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Their clinical data, investigations and organ involvement were serially noted for 90-days and utilized for AI modelling. Data were split randomly into train and validation sets. Multiple AI models, MELD and AARC-Model, were created/optimized on train set. Outcome prediction abilities were evaluated on validation sets through area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and class precision. Results: Among 2481 ACLF patients, 1501 in train set and 980 in validation set, the extreme gradient boost-cross-validated model (XGB-CV) demonstrated the highest AUC in train (0.999), validation (0.907) and overall sets (0.976) for predicting 30-day outcomes. The AUC and accuracy of the XGB-CV model (%Δ) were 7.0% and 6.9% higher than the standard day-7 AARC model (p <.001) and 12.8% and 10.6% higher than the day 7 MELD for 30-day predictions in validation set (p <.001). The XGB model had the highest AUC for 7- and 90-day predictions as well (p <.001). Day-7 creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), circulatory failure, leucocyte count and day-4 sepsis were top features determining the 30-day outcomes. A simple decision tree incorporating creatinine, INR and circulatory failure was able to classify patients into high (~90%), intermediate (~60%) and low risk (~20%) of mortality. A web-based AARC-AI model was developed and validated twice with optimal performance for 30-day predictions. Conclusions: The performance of the AARC-AI model exceeds the standard models for outcome predictions in ACLF. An AI-based decision tree can reliably undertake severity-based stratification of patients for timely interventions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)442-451
Number of pages10
JournalLiver International
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2023


  • cirrhosis
  • data science
  • machine learning
  • mortality
  • prognosis


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