Cancer workforce—a global crisis: a Lancet Oncology Commission

The shortage of well-trained personnel to deliver cancer care and conduct research remains a major obstacle to reducing disparities in cancer survival between high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). This Commission set out to provide actionable guidance for strengthening the global cancer workforce with an emphasis on reducing these disparities. To better understand the extent of the rising global cancer burden and the resulting workforce needs, we modelled the current and future global landscape of 17 common cancers and 18 workforce personnel types. Among the modelled cancers, diagnosed incidence rates are projected to increase globally, especially in LMICs, driven by growing and ageing populations and changing risk factors. Crucially, we estimate that one in three cancers go undiagnosed worldwide, with more than 60% of cancers remaining undiagnosed in parts of Africa. We find that, among the diagnosed cancers in LMICs, late-stage presentation and a lack of essential treatments and qualified health professionals contribute to poor survival. According to our modelling, in 2050, 5-year net survival is projected to remain lowest in Africa (34%) and Asia (39%), while reaching beyond 60% in high-income settings. The global cancer workforce shortage is projected to reach about 100 million in 2050, with the largest shortages being for nurses (65 million) and diagnostic (radiology and pathology) specialists (16 million), especially in Africa and Asia. Comprehensive workforce scale-up of all personnel types is projected to avert 170 million cancer deaths and yield net economic benefits of US$120 trillion between 2030 and 2050, translating to a global return on investment of $4 per $1 invested. Focusing primarily on examples from sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, we examine key obstacles to workforce development and retention in LMICs and propose pragmatic actions to address the workforce crisis. These actions include establishment of workforce and cancer registries; the creation of cross-sector and international partnerships to improve access to education and research training programmes as well as diagnostics, therapeutics, and equipment; and implementation of task-shifting, digital health, and artificial intelligence solutions, which could improve workforce productivity, further strengthening the case for investing in the cancer workforce. Translations For the Spanish, Portuguese, French, Chinese (Mandarin), Arabic and Russian translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.