Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

Niel Hens; M. Aerts; Z. Shkedy; P. Kung'u Kimani; M. Kojouhorova; P. Van Damme; Ph Beutels

doi:10.1017/S0950268807008692

Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

Niel Hens, M. Aerts, Z. Shkedy, P. Kung'u Kimani, M. Kojouhorova, P. Van Damme, Ph Beutels

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

Original language	English (UK)
Pages (from-to)	341-351
Number of pages	11
Journal	Epidemiology and Infection
Volume	136
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008692
Publication status	Published - Mar 2008
Externally published	Yes

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10.1017/S0950268807008692

Cite this

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title = "Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B",

abstract = "The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82\% (79-84\%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.",

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AU - Hens, Niel

AU - Aerts, M.

AU - Shkedy, Z.

AU - Kung'u Kimani, P.

AU - Kojouhorova, M.

AU - Van Damme, P.

AU - Beutels, Ph

PY - 2008/3

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AB - The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

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EP - 351

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

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Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

Abstract

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