Exploring the ‘January effect’ at a university hospital in Pakistan: a retrospective cohort study investigating the impact of trainee turnover on patient care quality outcomes

Objective: There are reports of a potential rise in a teaching hospital’s morbidity and mortality rates during the trainee turnover period, i.e., with the induction of new residents and house staffs, and the changeover of clinical teams. The published literature displays mixed reports on this topic with lack of reproducible observations. The current study was conducted to explore existence of any such phenomenon (January effect) in Pakistan. Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. Five-year (2013–2018) record of all the patients in all age groups related to these outcomes was retrieved and recorded in specifically designed questionnaire. Different outcome measures were used as indicators of patient care and change in these outcomes at the time of new induction was related to possible January effect. Results: During the five-year study period, more than 1100 new trainees were inducted into the post graduate medical education program (average of 237 per year) with more than 22,000 inpatient admissions (average of 45,469 per year). Some patterns were observed in frequencies of surgical site infections, medication errors, sentinel events, patient complaints, and adverse drug reactions. However, these were not consistently reproducible and could not be directly attributed to the trainee turnover. All other indicators did not show any pattern and were considered inconclusive. No effect of overlap was observed. Conclusions: Inconsistency in the patient care quality indicators do not favor existence of January effect in our study. Further research is recommended to establish our results.