TY - GEN
T1 - Modeling and simulation of summer monsoon rainfall for northem hilly area of pakistan
AU - Tufail, M. Yousuf
AU - Rehman, Saqib Ur
AU - Usmani, Bilal A.
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - This study assesses the inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall of Northern Hilly Area of Pakistan, which includes Balakot, Chitral, Murree, Gilgit, Skardu, Chilas, Muzaffarabad and Dir. The region receives a heavy rainfaU, the total annual rainfall being 1000 mm or more. We attempt to model the rainfall process of the data from 1971-2000. Initially we use twelve predictors out of which only four, viz., sea surface temperature (SST-lOa), temperature of Hyderabad city of Pakistan (HT-5)and pressure of Kakul (KP-10)and Lahore (LP3), are selected with the help of stepwise multiple linear regression. The mean square error of the regression model is found to be 13.8%. Since the entire modeling procedure is based on selected predictors, we suggest that the selected predictors, which are selected here according to their correlation, should be refined by using more sophisticated technique such as principal component analysis, or nonlinear correlations.
AB - This study assesses the inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall of Northern Hilly Area of Pakistan, which includes Balakot, Chitral, Murree, Gilgit, Skardu, Chilas, Muzaffarabad and Dir. The region receives a heavy rainfaU, the total annual rainfall being 1000 mm or more. We attempt to model the rainfall process of the data from 1971-2000. Initially we use twelve predictors out of which only four, viz., sea surface temperature (SST-lOa), temperature of Hyderabad city of Pakistan (HT-5)and pressure of Kakul (KP-10)and Lahore (LP3), are selected with the help of stepwise multiple linear regression. The mean square error of the regression model is found to be 13.8%. Since the entire modeling procedure is based on selected predictors, we suggest that the selected predictors, which are selected here according to their correlation, should be refined by using more sophisticated technique such as principal component analysis, or nonlinear correlations.
KW - Components
KW - Linear model
KW - Monsoon
KW - Northern hilly area
KW - Rainfall modeling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=67649666816&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/INMIC.2008.4777786
DO - 10.1109/INMIC.2008.4777786
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:67649666816
SN - 9781424428243
T3 - IEEE INMIC 2008: 12th IEEE International Multitopic Conference - Conference Proceedings
SP - 480
EP - 484
BT - IEEE INMIC 2008
T2 - 12th IEEE International Multitopic Conference, IEEE INMIC 2008
Y2 - 23 December 2008 through 24 December 2008
ER -