Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

Jon Salmanton-García; Pauline Wipfler; Janina Leckler; Pontus Nauclér; Patrick W. Mallon; Patricia C.J.L. Bruijning-Verhagen; Heinz Joseph Schmitt; Ullrich Bethe; Ole F. Olesen; Fiona A. Stewart; Kerstin Albus; Oliver A. Cornely; Martin Busch; Ulrike Seifert; Andreas Widmer; Miki Nagao; Jordi Rello; Tatina Todorova; Sabina Cviljević; Christopher H. Heath; Ligita Jančorienė; Thea Koelsen Fischer; Hans Martin Orth; Isik Somuncu Johansen; Mehmet Doymaz; Athanasios Tragiannidis; Thomas Löscher; Jin Fu Xu; Petr Husa; José Antonio Oteo; Mohammad I. Issack; Markus Zeitlinger; Roger Le Grand; Przemysław Zdziarski; Fatih Demirkan; Paloma Merino Amador; Tomás García-Lozano; Qing Cao; Lourdes Vázquez; Juan Pablo Caeiro; Peter Hermans; Shahroch Nahrwar; Korkut Avsar; Deepak Kumar; Norma Fernández; Masoud Mardani; Esther Segal; Angelo Pan; Despoina Gkentzi; Georgia Gioula; Jorge Alberto Cortés; Joaquim Oliveira; Pierre van Damme; Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd Zaili; Spinello Antinori; Birutė Zablockienė; Georgios Papazisis; Chioma Inyang Aneke; Maricela Valerio; Samuel McConkey; Avinash Aujayeb; Anna Maria Azzini; Jelena Roganović; Kristin Greve-Isdahl Mohn; Peter Kremsner; Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas; Dora Corzo; Nina Khanna; Tomasz Smiatacz; Simone Scheithauer; Maria Merelli; Boris Klempa; Radovan Vrḫovac; Antonio Ruggiero; Pankaj Chaudhary; Julio Maquera-Afaray; Miquel Ekkelenkamp; Pavel Jindra; Nikola Pantić; Gemma Jiménez Guerra; Guenter Weiss; Behrad Roohi; Christos D. Argyropoulos; Sven Aprne Silfverdal; Jens van Praet; Zumrut Sahbudak Bal; Souha Kanj; Barnaby Young; Zoi Dorothea Pana; Emmanuel Roilides; Stephen C. Stearns; Joost Wauters; Jesús Rodríguez Baño; Mathias W. Pletz; Maja Travar; Steven Kühn; Fernando Riera; Daniel Cornely; Vlad Jeni Laura; Philipp Koehler; Brian Eley; Pravin K. Nair; Sandra Ciesek; Ioana Diana Olaru; Laura Marques; Emanuele Pontali; Alexandra Naunheim; Adrian Lieb; Markus Gerhard; Joveria Qais Farooqi; Lance Turtle; Gustavo Adolfo Méndez; Rebecca Jane Cox; Nigel Goodman; Billie Caceca; Javier Pemán; Halima Dawood; Helena Hervius Askling; Anders Fomsgaard; Alejandra Calderón Hernández; Cornelia Staehelin; Chia Ying Liu; Giancarlo Icardi; Elio Castagnola; Helmut J.F. Salzer; Jens Lundgren; Samir Javadli; Fabio Forghieri

doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

Jon Salmanton-García, Pauline Wipfler, Janina Leckler, Pontus Nauclér, Patrick W. Mallon, Patricia C.J.L. Bruijning-Verhagen, Heinz Joseph Schmitt, Ullrich Bethe, Ole F. Olesen, Fiona A. Stewart, Kerstin Albus, Oliver A. Cornely, Martin Busch, Ulrike Seifert, Andreas Widmer, Miki Nagao, Jordi Rello, Tatina Todorova, Sabina Cviljević, Christopher H. HeathLigita Jančorienė, Thea Koelsen Fischer, Hans Martin Orth, Isik Somuncu Johansen, Mehmet Doymaz, Athanasios Tragiannidis, Thomas Löscher, Jin Fu Xu, Petr Husa, José Antonio Oteo, Mohammad I. Issack, Markus Zeitlinger, Roger Le Grand, Przemysław Zdziarski, Fatih Demirkan, Paloma Merino Amador, Tomás García-Lozano, Qing Cao, Lourdes Vázquez, Juan Pablo Caeiro, Peter Hermans, Shahroch Nahrwar, Korkut Avsar, Deepak Kumar, Norma Fernández, Masoud Mardani, Esther Segal, Angelo Pan, Despoina Gkentzi, Georgia Gioula, Jorge Alberto Cortés, Joaquim Oliveira, Pierre van Damme, Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd Zaili, Spinello Antinori, Birutė Zablockienė, Georgios Papazisis, Chioma Inyang Aneke, Maricela Valerio, Samuel McConkey, Avinash Aujayeb, Anna Maria Azzini, Jelena Roganović, Kristin Greve-Isdahl Mohn, Peter Kremsner, Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas, Dora Corzo, Nina Khanna, Tomasz Smiatacz, Simone Scheithauer, Maria Merelli, Boris Klempa, Radovan Vrḫovac, Antonio Ruggiero, Pankaj Chaudhary, Julio Maquera-Afaray, Miquel Ekkelenkamp, Pavel Jindra, Nikola Pantić, Gemma Jiménez Guerra, Guenter Weiss, Behrad Roohi, Christos D. Argyropoulos, Sven Aprne Silfverdal, Jens van Praet, Zumrut Sahbudak Bal, Souha Kanj, Barnaby Young, Zoi Dorothea Pana, Emmanuel Roilides, Stephen C. Stearns, Joost Wauters, Jesús Rodríguez Baño, Mathias W. Pletz, Maja Travar, Steven Kühn, Fernando Riera, Daniel Cornely, Vlad Jeni Laura, Philipp Koehler, Brian Eley, Pravin K. Nair, Sandra Ciesek, Ioana Diana Olaru, Laura Marques, Emanuele Pontali, Alexandra Naunheim, Adrian Lieb, Markus Gerhard, Joveria Qais Farooqi, Lance Turtle, Gustavo Adolfo Méndez, Rebecca Jane Cox, Nigel Goodman, Billie Caceca, Javier Pemán, Halima Dawood, Helena Hervius Askling, Anders Fomsgaard, Alejandra Calderón Hernández, Cornelia Staehelin, Chia Ying Liu, Giancarlo Icardi, Elio Castagnola, Helmut J.F. Salzer, Jens Lundgren, Samir Javadli, Fabio Forghieri

Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Medical College, Pakistan

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.

Original language	English
Article number	102676
Journal	Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
Volume	57
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2024

Keywords

Disease X
Ebola virus
Infectious disease
Influenza viruses
Pandemic
SARS-CoV
SARS-CoV-2
WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

Cite this

Salmanton-García, J., Wipfler, P., Leckler, J., Nauclér, P., Mallon, P. W., Bruijning-Verhagen, P. C. J. L., Schmitt, H. J., Bethe, U., Olesen, O. F., Stewart, F. A., Albus, K., Cornely, O. A., Busch, M., Seifert, U., Widmer, A., Nagao, M., Rello, J., Todorova, T., Cviljević, S., ... Forghieri, F. (2024). Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 57, Article 102676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

@article{9718fa7ad1de4514980699ef3244e917,

title = "Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics",

abstract = "Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.",

keywords = "Disease X, Ebola virus, Infectious disease, Influenza viruses, Pandemic, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics",

author = "Jon Salmanton-Garc{\'i}a and Pauline Wipfler and Janina Leckler and Pontus Naucl{\'e}r and Mallon, {Patrick W.} and Bruijning-Verhagen, {Patricia C.J.L.} and Schmitt, {Heinz Joseph} and Ullrich Bethe and Olesen, {Ole F.} and Stewart, {Fiona A.} and Kerstin Albus and Cornely, {Oliver A.} and Martin Busch and Ulrike Seifert and Andreas Widmer and Miki Nagao and Jordi Rello and Tatina Todorova and Sabina Cviljevi{\'c} and Heath, {Christopher H.} and Ligita Jan{\v c}orienė and Fischer, {Thea Koelsen} and Orth, {Hans Martin} and Johansen, {Isik Somuncu} and Mehmet Doymaz and Athanasios Tragiannidis and Thomas L{\"o}scher and Xu, {Jin Fu} and Petr Husa and Oteo, {Jos{\'e} Antonio} and Issack, {Mohammad I.} and Markus Zeitlinger and {Le Grand}, Roger and Przemys{\l}aw Zdziarski and Fatih Demirkan and Amador, {Paloma Merino} and Tom{\'a}s Garc{\'i}a-Lozano and Qing Cao and Lourdes V{\'a}zquez and Caeiro, {Juan Pablo} and Peter Hermans and Shahroch Nahrwar and Korkut Avsar and Deepak Kumar and Norma Fern{\'a}ndez and Masoud Mardani and Esther Segal and Angelo Pan and Despoina Gkentzi and Georgia Gioula and Cort{\'e}s, {Jorge Alberto} and Joaquim Oliveira and {van Damme}, Pierre and {Bin Mohd Zaili}, {Mohd Zaki} and Spinello Antinori and Birutė Zablockienė and Georgios Papazisis and Aneke, {Chioma Inyang} and Maricela Valerio and Samuel McConkey and Avinash Aujayeb and Azzini, {Anna Maria} and Jelena Roganovi{\'c} and {Greve-Isdahl Mohn}, Kristin and Peter Kremsner and Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas and Dora Corzo and Nina Khanna and Tomasz Smiatacz and Simone Scheithauer and Maria Merelli and Boris Klempa and Radovan Vrḫovac and Antonio Ruggiero and Pankaj Chaudhary and Julio Maquera-Afaray and Miquel Ekkelenkamp and Pavel Jindra and Nikola Panti{\'c} and Guerra, {Gemma Jim{\'e}nez} and Guenter Weiss and Behrad Roohi and Argyropoulos, {Christos D.} and Silfverdal, {Sven Aprne} and {van Praet}, Jens and Bal, {Zumrut Sahbudak} and Souha Kanj and Barnaby Young and Pana, {Zoi Dorothea} and Emmanuel Roilides and Stearns, {Stephen C.} and Joost Wauters and Ba{\~n}o, {Jes{\'u}s Rodr{\'i}guez} and Pletz, {Mathias W.} and Maja Travar and Steven K{\"u}hn and Fernando Riera and Daniel Cornely and Laura, {Vlad Jeni} and Philipp Koehler and Brian Eley and Nair, {Pravin K.} and Sandra Ciesek and Olaru, {Ioana Diana} and Laura Marques and Emanuele Pontali and Alexandra Naunheim and Adrian Lieb and Markus Gerhard and Farooqi, {Joveria Qais} and Lance Turtle and M{\'e}ndez, {Gustavo Adolfo} and Cox, {Rebecca Jane} and Nigel Goodman and Billie Caceca and Javier Pem{\'a}n and Halima Dawood and Askling, {Helena Hervius} and Anders Fomsgaard and Hern{\'a}ndez, {Alejandra Calder{\'o}n} and Cornelia Staehelin and Liu, {Chia Ying} and Giancarlo Icardi and Elio Castagnola and Salzer, {Helmut J.F.} and Jens Lundgren and Samir Javadli and Fabio Forghieri",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Author(s)",

year = "2024",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676",

language = "English",

volume = "57",

journal = "Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease",

issn = "1477-8939",

publisher = "Elsevier USA",

}

Salmanton-García, J, Wipfler, P, Leckler, J, Nauclér, P, Mallon, PW, Bruijning-Verhagen, PCJL, Schmitt, HJ, Bethe, U, Olesen, OF, Stewart, FA, Albus, K, Cornely, OA, Busch, M, Seifert, U, Widmer, A, Nagao, M, Rello, J, Todorova, T, Cviljević, S, Heath, CH, Jančorienė, L, Fischer, TK, Orth, HM, Johansen, IS, Doymaz, M, Tragiannidis, A, Löscher, T, Xu, JF, Husa, P, Oteo, JA, Issack, MI, Zeitlinger, M, Le Grand, R, Zdziarski, P, Demirkan, F, Amador, PM, García-Lozano, T, Cao, Q, Vázquez, L, Caeiro, JP, Hermans, P, Nahrwar, S, Avsar, K, Kumar, D, Fernández, N, Mardani, M, Segal, E, Pan, A, Gkentzi, D, Gioula, G, Cortés, JA, Oliveira, J, van Damme, P, Bin Mohd Zaili, MZ, Antinori, S, Zablockienė, B, Papazisis, G, Aneke, CI, Valerio, M, McConkey, S, Aujayeb, A, Azzini, AM, Roganović, J, Greve-Isdahl Mohn, K, Kremsner, P, Gkrania-Klotsas, E, Corzo, D, Khanna, N, Smiatacz, T, Scheithauer, S, Merelli, M, Klempa, B, Vrḫovac, R, Ruggiero, A, Chaudhary, P, Maquera-Afaray, J, Ekkelenkamp, M, Jindra, P, Pantić, N, Guerra, GJ, Weiss, G, Roohi, B, Argyropoulos, CD, Silfverdal, SA, van Praet, J, Bal, ZS, Kanj, S, Young, B, Pana, ZD, Roilides, E, Stearns, SC, Wauters, J, Baño, JR, Pletz, MW, Travar, M, Kühn, S, Riera, F, Cornely, D, Laura, VJ, Koehler, P, Eley, B, Nair, PK, Ciesek, S, Olaru, ID, Marques, L, Pontali, E, Naunheim, A, Lieb, A, Gerhard, M, Farooqi, JQ, Turtle, L, Méndez, GA, Cox, RJ, Goodman, N, Caceca, B, Pemán, J, Dawood, H, Askling, HH, Fomsgaard, A, Hernández, AC, Staehelin, C, Liu, CY, Icardi, G, Castagnola, E, Salzer, HJF, Lundgren, J, Javadli, S & Forghieri, F 2024, 'Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics', Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, vol. 57, 102676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the next pandemic

T2 - VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

AU - Salmanton-García, Jon

AU - Wipfler, Pauline

AU - Leckler, Janina

AU - Nauclér, Pontus

AU - Mallon, Patrick W.

AU - Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia C.J.L.

AU - Schmitt, Heinz Joseph

AU - Bethe, Ullrich

AU - Olesen, Ole F.

AU - Stewart, Fiona A.

AU - Albus, Kerstin

AU - Cornely, Oliver A.

AU - Busch, Martin

AU - Seifert, Ulrike

AU - Widmer, Andreas

AU - Nagao, Miki

AU - Rello, Jordi

AU - Todorova, Tatina

AU - Cviljević, Sabina

AU - Heath, Christopher H.

AU - Jančorienė, Ligita

AU - Fischer, Thea Koelsen

AU - Orth, Hans Martin

AU - Johansen, Isik Somuncu

AU - Doymaz, Mehmet

AU - Tragiannidis, Athanasios

AU - Löscher, Thomas

AU - Xu, Jin Fu

AU - Husa, Petr

AU - Oteo, José Antonio

AU - Issack, Mohammad I.

AU - Zeitlinger, Markus

AU - Le Grand, Roger

AU - Zdziarski, Przemysław

AU - Demirkan, Fatih

AU - Amador, Paloma Merino

AU - García-Lozano, Tomás

AU - Cao, Qing

AU - Vázquez, Lourdes

AU - Caeiro, Juan Pablo

AU - Hermans, Peter

AU - Nahrwar, Shahroch

AU - Avsar, Korkut

AU - Kumar, Deepak

AU - Fernández, Norma

AU - Mardani, Masoud

AU - Segal, Esther

AU - Pan, Angelo

AU - Gkentzi, Despoina

AU - Gioula, Georgia

AU - Cortés, Jorge Alberto

AU - Oliveira, Joaquim

AU - van Damme, Pierre

AU - Bin Mohd Zaili, Mohd Zaki

AU - Antinori, Spinello

AU - Zablockienė, Birutė

AU - Papazisis, Georgios

AU - Aneke, Chioma Inyang

AU - Valerio, Maricela

AU - McConkey, Samuel

AU - Aujayeb, Avinash

AU - Azzini, Anna Maria

AU - Roganović, Jelena

AU - Greve-Isdahl Mohn, Kristin

AU - Kremsner, Peter

AU - Gkrania-Klotsas, Effrossyni

AU - Corzo, Dora

AU - Khanna, Nina

AU - Smiatacz, Tomasz

AU - Scheithauer, Simone

AU - Merelli, Maria

AU - Klempa, Boris

AU - Vrḫovac, Radovan

AU - Ruggiero, Antonio

AU - Chaudhary, Pankaj

AU - Maquera-Afaray, Julio

AU - Ekkelenkamp, Miquel

AU - Jindra, Pavel

AU - Pantić, Nikola

AU - Guerra, Gemma Jiménez

AU - Weiss, Guenter

AU - Roohi, Behrad

AU - Argyropoulos, Christos D.

AU - Silfverdal, Sven Aprne

AU - van Praet, Jens

AU - Bal, Zumrut Sahbudak

AU - Kanj, Souha

AU - Young, Barnaby

AU - Pana, Zoi Dorothea

AU - Roilides, Emmanuel

AU - Stearns, Stephen C.

AU - Wauters, Joost

AU - Baño, Jesús Rodríguez

AU - Pletz, Mathias W.

AU - Travar, Maja

AU - Kühn, Steven

AU - Riera, Fernando

AU - Cornely, Daniel

AU - Laura, Vlad Jeni

AU - Koehler, Philipp

AU - Eley, Brian

AU - Nair, Pravin K.

AU - Ciesek, Sandra

AU - Olaru, Ioana Diana

AU - Marques, Laura

AU - Pontali, Emanuele

AU - Naunheim, Alexandra

AU - Lieb, Adrian

AU - Gerhard, Markus

AU - Farooqi, Joveria Qais

AU - Turtle, Lance

AU - Méndez, Gustavo Adolfo

AU - Cox, Rebecca Jane

AU - Goodman, Nigel

AU - Caceca, Billie

AU - Pemán, Javier

AU - Dawood, Halima

AU - Askling, Helena Hervius

AU - Fomsgaard, Anders

AU - Hernández, Alejandra Calderón

AU - Staehelin, Cornelia

AU - Liu, Chia Ying

AU - Icardi, Giancarlo

AU - Castagnola, Elio

AU - Salzer, Helmut J.F.

AU - Lundgren, Jens

AU - Javadli, Samir

AU - Forghieri, Fabio

PY - 2024/1/1

Y1 - 2024/1/1

N2 - Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.

AB - Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.

KW - Disease X

KW - Ebola virus

KW - Infectious disease

KW - Influenza viruses

KW - Pandemic

KW - SARS-CoV

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85180484561&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

DO - 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

M3 - Article

C2 - 38061408

AN - SCOPUS:85180484561

SN - 1477-8939

VL - 57

JO - Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

JF - Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

M1 - 102676

ER -

Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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