TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic measures of HIV-1 transmission in different HIV-1 key population groups of Larkana, Pakistan
AU - Rizwan-Ul-Hasa, Syed
AU - Abdullah, Abiha
AU - Siddiqui, Shakil Arshad
AU - Ahmed, Shakil
AU - Shah, Sharaf Ali
AU - Mir, Fatima
AU - Abidi, Syed Hani
PY - 2021/8/1
Y1 - 2021/8/1
N2 - OBJECTIVE: To estimate the probability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 transmission from different key HIV population groups using probabilistic modelling. Methods: This study was conducted in December 2020. A probabilistic model was used to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission from different key HIV population groups in Larkana. Our model was run on three probabilistic assumptions: 1) each replication gave two conceivable results: 'true' or 'false'; 2) the chance of giving a 'true' result is the same for each replication; and 3) the replications are independent - 'true' in one will not impact the likelihood of 'true' in another. RESULTS: The results estimated the probability of HIV transmission in key HIV population groups in Larkana to range between 0.42-0.54 per trial, where the highest probability of transmission was predicted for men who have sex with men (MSM; 0.54 per trial), followed by transgender (TG; 0.46 per trial) and people who inject drugs (PWID; 0.457 per trial). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that there is a high likelihood of HIV transmission by key population groups in Larkana, such as MSM, TG, and PWID. Mathematic models, such as one proposed in our study can aid the HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) control programmes in evaluating and optimising the strategies in controlling transmission of HIV from the key population groups.
AB - OBJECTIVE: To estimate the probability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 transmission from different key HIV population groups using probabilistic modelling. Methods: This study was conducted in December 2020. A probabilistic model was used to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission from different key HIV population groups in Larkana. Our model was run on three probabilistic assumptions: 1) each replication gave two conceivable results: 'true' or 'false'; 2) the chance of giving a 'true' result is the same for each replication; and 3) the replications are independent - 'true' in one will not impact the likelihood of 'true' in another. RESULTS: The results estimated the probability of HIV transmission in key HIV population groups in Larkana to range between 0.42-0.54 per trial, where the highest probability of transmission was predicted for men who have sex with men (MSM; 0.54 per trial), followed by transgender (TG; 0.46 per trial) and people who inject drugs (PWID; 0.457 per trial). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that there is a high likelihood of HIV transmission by key population groups in Larkana, such as MSM, TG, and PWID. Mathematic models, such as one proposed in our study can aid the HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) control programmes in evaluating and optimising the strategies in controlling transmission of HIV from the key population groups.
KW - HIV, Human immunodeficiency virus, Pakistan, Sexual and gender minorities, Transgender, Probabilistic, Larkana
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85115279314&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.47391/JPMA.0005
DO - 10.47391/JPMA.0005
M3 - Article
C2 - 34469425
AN - SCOPUS:85115279314
SN - 0030-9982
VL - 71 4)
SP - S26-S29
JO - JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association
JF - JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association
IS - 8
ER -
